Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 27 2023 - 00Z Thu May 04 2023

It remains the case that a favored composite of well clustered
model guidance has broad ensemble support overall in a pattern
with average to above average predictability. Recent passage of an
amplified/closed mid-latitude system to the northeast of the state
disrupted island trades and forced a trailing front along with
increasing chances for enhanced rains slowly eastward over the
islands. The weakened and stalling boundary and local land/sea
boundaries should act to continue to pool deeper moisture to fuel
some daily local downpours this week. This pattern should slowly
transition this weekend into early next week to usher in a return
period of moderate trades as high pressure bridges to the north
then northeast of the state. There is still a growing guidance
signal that subsequent southeastward digging of upper trough
energy from the west-central Pacific mid-latitudes early to mid
next week may again weaken island trades as an associated and
shower/thunderstorm focusing front slowly approaches the state
from the northwest.

Schichtel