Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 29 2023 - 00Z Sat May 06 2023

A favored composite of well clustered model guidance has broad
ensemble support overall in a pattern with average to above
average predictability. Recent passage of an amplified/closed
mid-latitude system to the northeast of the state pushed a
trailing front along with increased rains over the islands this
week. The weakened and stalling boundary and local land/sea
boundaries should act to continue to pool deeper moisture to fuel
some daily local downpours this weekend particularly for the Big
Island/Maui. This pattern should slowly transition next week to
usher in a return period of moderate trades as high pressure
bridges to the north then northeast of the state and the frontal
boundary dissipates. Southeastward digging of upper-level trough
energy from the west-central Pacific mid-latitudes next week is
forecast to occur to the west with subsequent higher precipitation
chances nearby but not over the islands 

Putnam/Schichtel