Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Sat May 6 2023

Valid 00Z Sun May 7 2023 - 00Z Sun May 14 2023

The subtropical high centered near 35 degrees north is forecast to
remain nearly anchored in place north of Hawaii through about
Wednesday based on the latest ensemble means, and the inverted
surface trough west of the Islands is expected to continue
drifting farther away from the state going into the weekend and
beyond.  Looking ahead to the middle of next week, the guidance
agrees that a col in the subtropical ridge develops in response to
a trailing surface trough/front from a strong low pressure system
over the southern Gulf of Alaska.  This will likely persist going
through next Friday and perhaps into Saturday as well.

Mainly easterly trade wind flow of 15-25 mph can be expected
through Tuesday as the pressure gradient remains in place, but a
return to lighter and perhaps more variable flow is likely by
Wednesday in response to the col developing to the north of the
state.  Besides the normal locations for trade wind enhanced
showers, no major areas of organized heavy rainfall appear likely
over the next seven days.

Hamrick