Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Sun May 7 2023

Valid 00Z Mon May 8 2023 - 00Z Mon May 15 2023

The subtropical high centered near 35 degrees north is forecast to
remain nearly anchored in place north of Hawaii through about
Wednesday based on latest model projections.  Looking ahead to the
middle of next week, the guidance agrees that a col in the
subtropical ridge develops in response to a trailing surface
trough/front from a strong low pressure system over the southern
Gulf of Alaska.  This will likely persist going through next
Friday and perhaps into Saturday as well, but it should not have
any major effects on the Islands.

Mainly easterly trade wind flow of 15-25 mph can be expected
through early Wednesday as the pressure gradient remains in place,
but a return to lighter and slightly more variable flow is likely
for the end of the week in response to the col developing to the
north of the state.  Besides the normal locations for trade wind
enhanced showers, no major areas of organized heavy rainfall
appear likely over the next seven days as the deepest tropical
moisture generally stays below 15 degrees north.

Hamrick