Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EDT Wed May 10 2023

Valid 00Z Thu May 11 2023 - 00Z Thu May 18 2023

The elongated subtropical ridge that has been in place north of
Hawaii will begin breaking down some with a col developing north
of the state, in response to a trailing surface trough/front from
a strong low pressure system over the southern Gulf of Alaska
going into Thursday.  This will likely persist going through
Saturday as well with the front likely reaching the central
Islands, but it should not have any major effects in terms of
increased rainfall.  The ensemble means suggest the high should
build back in north of the state by next Sunday and early next
week.

In terms of sensible weather, a return to lighter and more
variable flow is expected over the next few days in response to
the col developing to the north of the state.  The passage of the
cold front will herald a change to increasing northeasterly flow
behind it and lower dewpoints for the central and western Islands.
 Other than some heavier showers on the Big Island early next
week, no major areas of organized heavy rainfall appear likely
over the next seven days as the deepest tropical moisture
generally stays well south of the Islands.

Hamrick