Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Valid 00Z Sat May 13 2023 - 00Z Sat May 20 2023

Another day of relatively weak trade winds is expected for Hawaii
on Friday as a surface trough disrupts the easterly flow.
Scattered showers and clouds are possible with a sea/land breeze
pattern, though moisture levels are somewhat below normal with the
deep tropical moisture pushed well south of the state. Over the
weekend into the first part of next week, a surface high looks to
set up to the northwest of the state while a weak cold front moves
through. This should strengthen winds to around moderate levels
with a slight northerly component, and any scattered showers would
likely favor windward areas, especially over the Big Island.

Model guidance becomes more variable in terms of the pattern
around midweek next week and beyond. A weak trough may approach
from the west, which could draw in higher moisture levels and
provide for increasing shower coverage and perhaps some heavy
rain, while possibly weakening winds overall and turning them more
southerly. This pattern change will continue to be monitored as
model guidance variations lead to low confidence at this time.

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