Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023

Valid 00Z Sun May 21 2023 - 00Z Sun May 28 2023

Guidance generally agrees that the wet pattern for Hawaii has
eased with upper trough translation and an associated reduction of
moisture across much of the state. Shower coverage should
gradually decrease through the weekend into early next week as the
weakening upper trough moves away and is increasingly replaced by
upper ridging. Surface highs building to the northeast and the
northwest off the islands should lead to a more typical and drier
easterly trade wind pattern. Trades may increase to breezy levels
at times next week, and showers that do form should focus across
windward and mountain areas. There is a growing but still less
certain guidance signal/guidance forecast cluster that favors slow
carving of an upper weakness of the state mid-later next week on
the southern periphery of a developing and trade disrupting closed
low settling to the northwest of the state. This seems reasonable
considering upstream upper ridge amplification over the
west-central Pacific. In this overall scenario, pooling moisture
could increasingly refuel more widespread showers/downpours.

Schichtel