Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EDT Sun May 21 2023

Valid 00Z Mon May 22 2023 - 00Z Mon May 29 2023

Models and ensembles generally agree that surface high building to
the northeast and the northwest off the islands will support a
more typical and drier trade wind pattern over the state, with
activity limited under the influence of upper ridging. Trades may
increase to breezy levels at times next week, and showers that do
form should focus across windward and mountain areas through
midweek. Later, there is a growing but still less certain guidance
signal/guidance forecast cluster that favors a slow carving of an
upper weakness of the state mid-later next week on the southern
periphery of a developing and trade disrupting closed low settling
to the northwest of the state and southward trailing front to the
west of the state. This seems reasonable considering upstream
upper ridge amplification over the west-central Pacific. In this
overall scenario, pooling moisture could increasingly refuel more
widespread showers with local downpours in a renewing wet pattern.

Schichtel