Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jun 20 2023 - 00Z Tue Jun 27 2023

A compact upper low looks to drift a bit south over Hawaii
today/Monday, allowing for a lessening inversion aloft, while
there is potential for a band of increased moisture to come in.
This could lead to increased showers across the state. With trade
winds around moderate levels today, showers should favor windward
and mauka areas, but some are also possible over leeward areas as
well if the trades weaken enough for sea breezes to develop,
and/or if showers that form in windward areas spill over. Shower
coverage is likely to lessen by Tuesday and beyond as the upper
low weakens and moves away, while trade winds stay around moderate
levels. But by the latter half of the week, a surface high in the
eastern Pacific is forecast to press southwest closer to Hawaii
and extend its influence to strengthen trades to widespread breezy
to windy levels, which could last through the weekend and even
into early next week. Meanwhile a generally ridgy pattern aloft
should provide stable conditions to keep the state relatively dry.

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