Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 01 2023 - 00Z Sat Jul 08 2023

Today's guidance agrees upon the persistence of the general trade
pattern through the next week, with mostly below-climatology
precipitable water values helping to keep windward-focused showers
on the lighter half of the spectrum most of the time.  A weak
easterly wave crossing the state during the weekend may bring a
brief increase in showers and lighter background flow, while
subsequent southwestward building of eastern Pacific surface high
pressure will likely support strengthening moderate to brisk
trades during the early-middle part of next week.  Trades may
slacken a bit later in the week as the high weakens and/or
retreats.  The upper level pattern over the state looks ambiguous
for most of the period, with areas of relatively lower heights to
the east and west of the main islands while the best ridging stays
to the north.  The 00Z ECMWF/CMC/CMCens mean and 12Z ECens mean
suggest more of a connection between the two weaknesses by the
middle of next week versus the 00Z GFS/GEFS mean. 

Rausch