Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 04 2023 - 00Z Tue Jul 11 2023

Expect moderate to brisk trades through the period, favoring
mostly windward/mountain showers.  Guidance agrees on eastern
Pacific high pressure drifting slowly closer to the state with
time, albeit with some gradual weakening as it does so.  Consensus
suggests that the net result should be a slightly tighter pressure
gradient and somewhat stronger winds from late week onward.  There
is good agreement and continuity for precipitable water values to
remain below normal into Saturday, likely helping to keep showers
on the lighter side.  Guidance is showing a decent signal for a
pocket of moisture (originally associated with tropical cyclone
Adrian) to reach the Big Island and vicinity by around
Sunday-Monday.  Meanwhile the upper ridge forecast to be centered
just south of the main islands into the weekend should give way to
lower heights at that distant time frame.  That combination should
lead to some increase in rainfall during Sunday-Monday.   

Rausch