Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 07 2023 - 00Z Fri Jul 14 2023

Today's guidance continues to show a persistent trade pattern with
moderate to brisk winds and primarily windward focused showers
through the period.  Trades should strengthen by the weekend as
separate surface high centers over the central and eastern Pacific
come close to merging north of the state, with some weakening
possible toward Wednesday-Thursday as the eastern high weakens and
the more western one retreats to the northwest.  The combination
of upper ridging over/south of the state and below normal
precipitable water values should lead to fairly light rainfall
through the weekend.  Rainfall totals may increase somewhat next
week as a pocket of greater moisture (originally from Hurricane
Adrian, and with somewhat closer timing agreement in the models
versus yesterday) passes through around Monday-Tuesday and a broad
upper weakness, containing one or more lows, progresses over or
just north of the area from east to west.  The main model
difference arises by next Thursday as the 00Z GFS is deeper and a
little slower with its upper low versus most other guidance.  As a
result the GFS actually shows an increase in moisture over the
state from next Wednesday into Thursday while the ECMWF and
GEFS/ECens means all suggest drier air should start moving in from
the east by next Thursday.

Rausch