Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 26 2023 - 00Z Wed Aug 02 2023

A reasonably strong surface high will meander well north of Hawaii
around 40N latitude through the rest of the week into next week.
The influence of this high will lead to persistent generally
moderate to breezy easterly trades, with perhaps minor variations
in speed from day to day. Thus clouds and showers that may form
should favor windward and mauka areas. But with ridging aloft over
the next several days, an inversion will keep any showers shallow,
and the latter half of this week looks to have lower than normal
moisture in place as well, limiting shower activity further. By
late week into the weekend, a trough axis oriented northeast to
southwest could set up west of Hawaii. Most model guidance keeps
all troughing influence to the west, but GFS/GEFS runs edge some
into the western islands. This lower probability solution could
allow for some increased moisture to be drawn north, but a drier
trade wind pattern looks more likely to last through the weekend
into next week.

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