Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Fri Aug 04 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 05 2023 - 00Z Sat Aug 12 2023

Today's guidance clusters well for the forecast pattern through
late next week.  Expect an upper trough to drop over the state
during the weekend, with the embedded upper low center likely
getting close to the northwestern islands on Sunday.  Then a
retrograding eastern Pacific upper ridge will push the upper
trough/low westward away from the islands.  This ridge should
reach a position north of the state by midweek and then gradually
weaken as it continues westward.  The combination of the upper
trough and a north-south band of moisture crossing the area
rapidly from east to west around Monday may serve to enhance
shower activity during the weekend into the start of next week. 
After this Monday moisture departs, models/means show a very dry
pattern with precipitable water values up to two standard
deviations below normal.  Trades should be moderate through the
weekend, with the upper trough producing a break in surface
ridging to the north.  Then winds will strengthen considerably by
Tuesday with high pressure to the north and Hurricane Dora passing
well south of the state (along 10-15N latitude).  The windy
conditions should trend down toward brisk trades later in the
week. 

Rausch