Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 07 2023 - 00Z Mon Aug 14 2023

An upper low reaching near the northwestern islands on Sunday will
produce a brief weakness in mid-latitude high pressure, leading to
moderate trades, and could provide a little enhancement of
windward focused showers.  A band of enhanced moisture quickly
passing through around Monday may also increase rainfall amounts
slightly, but rising heights as an upper ridge to the northeast
approaches could be an offsetting factor.  Then from late Monday
through Tuesday expect strong and gusty winds as upper/surface
ridging to the north moves westward in concert with Hurricane Dora
that is forecast to track along 10-15N latitude.  Steady weakening
of the ridge at the surface and aloft should help winds to slacken
toward moderate levels again by around the end of the week.  An
upper trough/low approaching from the northeast next weekend may
also help to lower surface pressures some.  By next Sunday there
are essentially two clusters for the upper feature, with the 00Z
GFS/GEFS/ECMWF bringing it over the islands versus the 12Z ECMWF
mean/00Z CMC that keep it farther northeast.  Expect rather dry
conditions from Tuesday onward.  Below-climatology precipitable
water values may reach as low as minus 2-2.5 standard deviations
over the central/northwestern islands around Tuesday-Wednesday,
followed by somewhat less extreme values but likely staying drier
than average by at least one standard deviation.

Rausch