Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 12 2023 - 00Z Sat Aug 19 2023

Latest guidance agrees upon a mostly dry pattern into next week as
the state remains under an east-west axis of below average
precipitable water values. Initially brisk trades, focusing what
showers there are over windward/mountain terrain, should trend
toward moderate levels with an upper weakness dropping down from
the north-northeast during the weekend. Models/ensemble means
suggest this weakness/upper trough may sit over the region into
next week, sandwiched between and upper ridge to the north and
another to the southeast. Moisture and winds may increase further
later next week as a tropical disturbance moves well to the south
of Hawaii. Models show good agreement on this pattern for the
large scale, but with plenty of differences remaining in the
details.

Santorelli