Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 14 2023 - 00Z Mon Aug 21 2023

The upper level pattern over Hawaii for the next week features
upper troughing currently over the state splitting with some
energy going westward, the other piece drifting north of Hawaii,
as upper level ridging then builds over the state. This should
maintain easterly trades, but with weaker speeds and an overall
dry precipitation pattern limiting shower activity to the typical
mountain/windward locations. Moisture should gradually increase
across the state this week as a tropical disturbance passes well
south of the islands Thursday into Friday. There is model
agreement that newly formed Tropical Storm Fernanda in the east
Pacific will drift westward towards Hawaii this week, possibly in
a position east of the islands in about a weeks time. Still a lot
of uncertainty in whether this will even be tropical still by that
time, and what, if any, impacts this will have on the island
chain, but it will be something to monitor over the next several
days.

Santorelli