Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 15 2023 - 00Z Tue Aug 22 2023

The upper level pattern over Hawaii for the next week features
upper troughing over the state splitting with some energy going
westward, the other piece drifting north of Hawaii, as upper level
ridging then builds over the state. This should maintain easterly
trades, but with weaker speeds and an overall dry precipitation
pattern limiting shower activity to the typical mountain/windward
locations. Moisture should gradually increase across the state
this week as a tropical disturbance passes well south of the
islands Thursday into Friday. There is model agreement that newly
formed Tropical Storm Fernanda in the east Pacific will drift
westward towards Hawaii this week, with model and NHC guidance
showing it should weaken before reaching Hawaii. Regardless,
increased moisture and winds associated with the remnants of
Fernanda is possible with some uptick in showery activity early
next week.

Santorelli