Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 26 2023 - 00Z Sat Sep 02 2023

A weak upper-level trough is forecast to influence Hawaii through
this weekend into around Monday, which could allow for a little
more vertical motion to form showers, though moisture levels look
to be near to below normal. A slightly weakening pressure gradient
at the surface should cause slightly weaker trades. By Tuesday and
through much of next week though, upper and surface highs setting
up northeast of the state will lead to strengthening trades and
drier conditions. But meanwhile a tropical disturbance with a high
chance of development into a tropical cyclone per the National
Hurricane Center looks to track westward next week possibly toward
Hawaii. Several models show a track near or over the state but
with differences in the timing (the ECMWF is among the faster
guidance in taking it over the state Thursday-Friday). The
forecast for this possible tropical system will continue to be
closely monitored.

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