Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 27 2023 - 00Z Sun Sep 03 2023

A weak upper-level trough is forecast to influence Hawaii through
this weekend into around Monday, which could allow for a little
more vertical motion to form showers, though moisture levels look
to be near to below normal. A slightly weakening pressure gradient
at the surface should cause trades to stay around moderate levels,
which could lead to a hybrid pattern of sea/land breeze showers
forming as well as showers favoring windward/mauka areas.

By Tuesday and through much of next week, upper and surface highs
setting up northeast of the state will lead to strengthening
trades and drier conditions. Meanwhile a tropical disturbance with
a high chance of development into a tropical cyclone per the
National Hurricane Center looks to track westward next week,
possibly toward Hawaii. There remains considerable spread in
timing of the system. ECMWF runs have been persistently on the
faster side, affecting the state with winds and rain by Friday or
Saturday, while other guidance keeps the tropical low well east of
Hawaii at least through all next week. Ensemble members from
multiple model suites show considerable spread as well. The
forecast for this possible tropical system will continue to be
closely monitored, but at this time the ECMWF-type solutions seem
less likely.

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