Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 30 2023 - 00Z Wed Sep 06 2023

A pattern change is on the way for Hawaii as upper ridging
replaces a trough and promotes more stable conditions. At the
surface, high pressure northeast of the state drifting west will
increase the pressure gradient and lead to strengthening trades to
breezy or perhaps strong levels by midweek. A brief moisture surge
is possible on Tuesday-Wednesday, which while fairly weak could
lead to a few showers and should protect from the driest
conditions. Unfortunately, drier dewpoints and humidity looks to
be in place for Thursday, and the Honolulu Weather Forecast Office
has issued a Fire Weather Watch to monitor the potential for
conditions conducive to spreading fires. Then winds may moderate
some by the weekend while moisture levels return a bit closer to
average as well. Then into next week, lowering heights aloft
appear possible while the surface pressure gradient could weaken.
Model guidance is indicating that this combination could lead to
moisture getting pulled northward from the ITCZ by around next
Tuesday, likely first for the Big Island and then moving west
across the state, with the details still yet to be determined at
this point.

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