Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 03 2023 - 00Z Sun Sep 10 2023

A favored composite of reasonably well clustered guidance
indicates that surface high pressure bridging to the northeast of
the state should maintain breezier than normal island winds today.
Ridging aloft and below normal dewpoints/humidity levels may
combine with the breezy conditions to offer some lingering fire
danger risks. By early next week though, lowering heights aloft
appear likely, providing for some possible instability under/east
of an emerging mean upper trough position. A weakening surface
pressure gradient should lead to decreasing trade winds and
perhaps more of a land/sea breeze pattern. Increasing showers are
possible where moisture levels increase. There has been a
recurring signal supporting a brief incursion of moisture
particularly for the northwestern islands around Monday, but
chances of a greater moisture surge from the ITCZ into at least
the Big Island into/through midweek in a pattern seemingly
favoring a gradual strengthening of trades into the state.

Schichtel