Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 24 2023 - 00Z Sun Oct 01 2023

The guidance agrees that a warm core high strengthens to the north
and eventually northeast of Hawaii into late next week should keep
a locally breezy trade wind pattern in place. Trades may be
disturbed during this weekend with some heavier showers possible
as an upper level trough/cyclone moves nearby and leads to a
slight uptick in the precipitable water values over the islands,
an event which looks to recur late next week prior to the approach
of a tropical entity whose path at the moment appears to be far
enough south of the archipelago to preempt any major heavy
rainfall threat.  Showers through the next week will tend to focus
over the favorable windward/mountain areas but would become more
feisty near the upper level disturbances and perhaps just to the
north of the track of the tropical disturbance moving south of
Hawai'i late next week.

Roth