Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 25 2023 - 00Z Mon Oct 02 2023

The guidance agrees that a warm core high strengthens to the north
and shifts northeast of Hawaii into next weekend should keep a
locally breezy trade wind pattern in place. Trades may be
disturbed during this ongoing weekend with some heavier showers
possible as an upper level trough/cyclone slowly retreats to the
west and leads to a slight uptick in the precipitable water values
over the islands, an event which looks to recur late next week
into next weekend as the warm core ridge to the northeast weakens.
 Current Tropical Depression 14-E is expected to pass far enough
south of the archipelago as a post-tropical cyclone/remnant low to
preempt any major heavy rainfall threat.  Showers through the next
week will tend to focus over the favorable windward/mountain areas
but would become more feisty near the upper level disturbances and
perhaps just to the north of the track of the tropical disturbance
moving south of Hawai'i both this weekend and late next week/next
weekend.

Roth