Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 27 2023 - 00Z Wed Oct 04 2023

The guidance agrees that a warm core high shifts north and
northeast of Hawaii into next weekend that trade winds should
remain in place. Trades should weaken late week into the weekend
as a pair of upper lows moves the main islands from different
directions, the warm core ridge to the northeast weakens, and a
front/upper trough approach and slowly move through the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.  This will act to lead
to an increase in precipitable water values.  Post-Tropical
Depression 14-E is expected to pass far enough south of the
archipelago to preempt any major heavy rainfall threat, though a
modest uptick in shower activity cannot be ruled out.  Another
tropical wave appears to be on approach to Hawai'i by next
Tuesday.  Showers will tend to focus over the favorable
windward/mountain areas but could become more feisty late this
week through early next week.

Roth