Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 28 2023 - 00Z Thu Oct 05 2023

The guidance agrees that a warm core high shifts north and
northeast of Hawaii into the weekend which keeps trade winds in
place. Trades should weaken by early next week as a pair of upper
lows move into the main islands from different directions, the
warm core ridge to the northeast weakens, and a front/upper trough
approach and slowly move through the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument.  This will act to lead to an increase in
precipitable water values.  The remains of Tropical Depression
14-E are expected to pass far enough south of the archipelago to
preempt any major heavy rainfall threat, though a modest uptick in
shower activity cannot be ruled out.  Another tropical wave
appears to move south of Hawai'i mid-next week.  Showers will tend
to focus over the favorable windward/mountain areas but could
become more feisty late this week through early next week due to
the nearby upper level disturbances and increased
moisture/instability.

Roth