Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 30 2023 - 00Z Sat Oct 07 2023

On Friday and through the weekend, a typical Pacific surface high
well northeast of Hawaii will keep easterly trades at around
moderate levels. Weak troughing aloft and a slight surge of
moisture could lead to showers, which should favor windward and
mauka areas in this pattern. By around Monday and especially by
Tuesday, a pattern change is likely as a notable surface low sets
up well north and disrupts the pressure gradient over the state,
weakening winds and likely allowing for sea and land breezes to
set up. Meanwhile moisture will become limited as precipitable
water values fall below normal. This generally dry sea/land breeze
pattern is likely to last a few days. A cold front and pooling
moisture ahead of it could reach the northwestern islands by late
next week, but there is also a chance it stays north of the state.
This will continue to be monitored.

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