Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 13 2023 - 00Z Fri Oct 20 2023

A favored composite of reasonably well clustered model and
ensemble guidance favors eased island trades over the next week as
a series of fronts work to near/just to the north of the state
before weakening/stalling. Overall in this pattern, limited
moisture and mostly dry conditions are expected over the islands,
albeit with some daily windward/mauka showers in a pattern with
seemingly good predictability.
However, there is a growing guidance signal that flow/system
amplification over the Pacific mid-upper latitudes into about a
week may be sufficient to bring a better organized and rainfall
focusing front toward the state in about a week and lead flow
response may bring deeper moisture up into the islands.

Schichtel