Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 14 2023 - 00Z Sat Oct 21 2023

Today's guidance generally agrees that trades should become fairly
light from this weekend to around the middle of next week as a
couple fronts drop down close to or into the northwestern islands.
 This weaker trend for trades would lead to increased land/sea
breeze influence on shower activity.  High pressure building in to
the north of the second (late week) front should help trade flow
to rebound somewhat by Thursday-Friday, with a return to more
windward/mountain shower focus.  Currently the models and means
suggest that moisture associated with the two fronts could enhance
rainfall totals a little over the northwestern islands, and
perhaps slightly more with the second front.  As for this late
week moisture axis, the 00Z GFS/GEFS and 12Z ECens mean say that
it may reach a little farther south than forecast by the 00Z
ECMWF.  On the other hand, the GFS brings a pocket of enhanced
moisture into the Big Island and vicinity around
Wednesday-Thursday but the 00Z GEFS/ECMWF and 12Z ECens mean all
indicate below-climatology precipitable water values in that time
frame.  Preference would be for the majority cluster in both
cases.  

Rausch