Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 22 2023 - 00Z Sun Oct 29 2023

The latest models and ensembles show good agreement on an upper
low staying well to the north of Hawaii and a cold front
meandering near/over the western part of the state into early next
week. Trade winds should shift to a more southerly direction and
strengthen ahead of the approaching front with enhanced moisture
and rainfall across especially the western islands, although
guidance continue to suggest the heaviest rainfall may stay just
to the north/west of Kauai. Enhanced showery activity is also
possible across parts of the Big Island/Maui associated with weak
energy and a pocket of higher moisture. Around Wednesday of next
week, guidance shows the upper low lifting north and eastward and
heights rising again over Hawaii, with lighter trades and some
lingering showery activity.

Santorelli