Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Mon Nov 06 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 07 2023 - 00Z Tue Nov 14 2023

High pressure to the north of Hawaii will continue to support
enhanced easterly trades to windy levels through the early part of
the workweek. Upper-level ridging aloft will cause low available
moisture and generally dry conditions over much of the state,
which combined with the winds will lead to fire weather concerns.
The Honolulu Weather Forecast Office has issued Red Flag Warnings
for the fire potential, along with some Wind Advisories. However,
the northwestern islands have better potential for showers on
Monday as a band of moisture associated with a weak cold front
meanders. This band may make its way into Oahu and perhaps even
farther south around Tuesday, leading to perhaps some showers for
windward/mauka regions, but likely not all the way to the Big
Island.

The mid-upper ridge should be eroding by Tuesday-Wednesday, while
a slight weakening of the surface pressure gradient reduces trades
to more moderate levels. Moist conditions could persist especially
over Kauai. Then by the latter part of the week into early next
week, trades will likely increase to breezy/windy levels again as
a strong high builds to the north, while lower heights aloft
should promote windward/mauka showers through much of the state.
Another front could approach Kauai early next week, so this will
continue to be monitored.

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