Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Tue Nov 07 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 08 2023 - 00Z Wed Nov 15 2023

After rather windy conditions during the early part of the week,
trades are forecast to decrease to more moderate levels over the
next couple days as the surface pressure gradient weakens in favor
of a weak trough. This is in response to a shortwave trough and
potentially closed mid-upper low dropping northwest of the state.
Meanwhile a band of moisture associated with a weak cold front
should allow for showers especially in windward/mauka areas from
Kauai through Oahu and Maui on Tuesday. By Wednesday-Thursday,
winds may shift slightly to be from the southeast, carrying any
enhanced moisture away from the state for drier conditions. By
late week and continuing into early next week, trades will likely
increase to breezy/windy levels again as a strong high builds to
the north. Models then continue to show the possibility of a cold
front passing across at least Kauai around Monday-Tuesday, with
some (00Z GFS) indicating the front could track through all the
islands. Given the timing and placement differences of the front
among models, this will continue to be monitored in future
forecasts.

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