Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 13 2023 - 00Z Mon Nov 20 2023

Moderate trades are expected to support some mainly windward
shower activity into Monday. Meanwhile though, deep upper trough
amplification over the eastern Pacific will force a well defined
cold front southward through the islands Tuesday. A favored
composite of model and ensemble guidance seems to offer a good
forecast basis amid growing forecast spread over time for
development of this feature. This front should focus moisture and
an axis of precipitation with passage to again likely focus on
windward areas. High pressure building into the north of the state
in the wake of frontal passage should rejuvenate trades through
mid-late week in a pattern with decreasing moisture availability.
There is a now a stronger than average longer range signal
supporting the digging of an amplified upper trough and lead cold
front/deepening surface low from the northwest of the islands next
weekend. This approach would act to disrupt island island trades
and offers potential for lead development of deep layered and
moist southerly inflow to spread eastward across the state to fuel
enhanced shower activity.

Schichtel