Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 16 2023 - 00Z Thu Nov 23 2023

Post-frontal high pressure building into the north of the state
should support moderate trades over the next few days in a pattern
with decreased moisture availability and quite limited windward
showers. There then still remains a stronger than average longer
range signal supporting the digging of an amplified upper trough
and lead cold front/deepening surface low from the northwest of
the islands this weekend. This approach would act to disrupt
island island trades while offering potential for lead development
of deep layered and moist and more southerly inflow to spread
across the state. This would fuel enhanced shower activity later
weekend into an expected frontal passage now Sunday into Monday,
followed by a return of post-frontal trade flow as a new high
pressure cell settle to the north of the state into next midweek.
A favored composite of reasonably well clustered model and
ensemble guidance offers good forecast continuity and seemingly
above normal predictability for much of the next week.

Schichtel