Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 17 2023 - 00Z Fri Nov 24 2023

A high pressure cell to the north of the state should support near
moderate trades into Friday in a pattern with decreased moisture
availability and quite limited windward showers. An amplified
upper trough and lead cold front/deepening surface low will dig to
the northwest and then track to the north of the islands this
weekend. This will act to disrupt island island trades while
offering potential for lead development of deep layered and moist
southerly inflow into the state to fuel some enhanced shower
activity prior to frontal arrival Sunday into Monday, followed by
return of post-frontal trade flow as a new high pressure cell
passes to the north of the state into next midweek. Orgainized
shower activity may linger early to mid-next week dependent upon
still uncertain proximity/lingering of the slowing/weakening
front. A favored composite of reasonably well clustered model and
ensemble guidance offers good forecast continuity and seemingly
above normal predictability for this forecast period.

Schichtel