Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 26 2023 - 00Z Sun Dec 03 2023

High pressure moving in to the north of Hawaii should bring a
brief return to moderate trade wind activity Sunday into Monday
with additional moisture beginning to be drawn northward around
the same time as well as southern stream energy breaks off, closes
off a low west of the state, and then opens up again and advances
eastward around Monday. After this though, models continue to show
good agreement on a likely Kona low setting up west of the state
around mid week with precipitable water values increasing up to
two or more standard deviations above normal by Thursday. The
guidance continues to show plenty of uncertainty in the exact
placement of the low, with impacts on where the heaviest rainfall
sets up. At least through this mornings new 00z runs, the UKMET is
displaced closest to Hawaii, with the better cluster of guidance
suggesting a location slightly farther west. Regardless though,
there is increased potential for more widespread and potentially
heavy rains across Hawaii mid to later next week, with a lot of
uncertainty still in exact amounts. The guidance shows this low
weakening next weekend and slowly beginning to drift eastward over
or just north of the islands.

Santorelli