Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 01 2023 - 00Z Fri Dec 08 2023

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding continuing through Saturday...

A Kona low west of Hawaii will continue to bring the potential for
widespread heavy rainfall and possibly strong thunderstorms
through Saturday to much of the state. Heavy snow will also be
possible in the higher terrain of the Big Island. Flooding and
flash flooding are a concern as precipitable water values are as
much as 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. By this weekend,
the upper low should weaken and slowly drift north of Hawaii with
rainfall trending lighter as dry air moves in. An upper ridge
builds over the region next week, bringing back gusty easterly
trades. Overall the guidance is improving on the specifics of the
Kona low, but still struggle some with exact rainfall
amounts/locations. A general model blend should suffice for the
entire period and help smooth out these details.

Santorelli