Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 22 2023 - 00Z Fri Dec 29 2023

Models and ensembles agree to maintain a pattern with increased
moisture and strengthened easterly trades over the next couple of
days as potent surface high pressure cells bridge to the north of
the state. This should favor windward/mauka showers in vicinity of
a mean upper trough position whose influence and pooling moisture
should wane through the extended holiday weekend. Potent upper
trough/surface system energies progressing through spirited
westerlies over the mid-latitudes of the Pacific should
subsequently allow for some disruption of island trades by
Christmas with approach from the north of a moisture/shower
focusing trailing cold front slated by a favored composite of
guidance to slowly weaken while gradually working to the islands
early-mid next week.

Schichtel