Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Dec 25 2023 - 00Z Mon Jan 01 2024

Today's guidance continues to show precipitable water values
staying below climatology through next weekend, likely keeping
rainfall totals on the light side.  Meanwhile expect light to
moderate trades through the rest of this weekend followed by a
pattern featuring variable winds and shower focus as multiple
fronts affect the region.  Consensus has remained fairly steady
with the first front that should reach into the islands early in
the week.  Its narrow band of moisture will likely settle near the
Big Island during Tuesday-Wednesday, possibly into Thursday, and
may increase rainfall slightly.  Consecutive 6-hourly GFS runs
have continued their variability for the next front approaching
around Thursday-Friday.  Some of those runs have been on the
amplified side of guidance for the upper trough, pushing the
surface front southward of consensus.  For the second day in a row
the 00Z GFS has adjusted the front northward away from its 18Z run
back toward consensus that has the front barely reaching the
northwestern islands.  Spread and variability are more dramatic
for the next front scheduled to approach and possibly reach the
area during the weekend.  The 00Z GFS pushes the front farther
south than other guidance while the 18Z run was extremely far
north (with contrasting upper trough or ridge, respectively).  The
00Z GEFS mean or some degree of compromise with the slightly
farther north 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECens mean would provide a better
intermediate solution for this front.  Yet another front may
approach from the northwest during the day next Sunday.

Rausch