Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EST Mon Jan 01 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 02 2024 - 00Z Tue Jan 09 2024

Models and ensembles continue to advertise a relatively benign
weather pattern across Hawaii through at least next weekend.
Moderate to breezy trade winds will build across Hawaii through
the week though with periodic disruption with passing cold fronts
with generally light precipitation tending to favor the typical
windward slopes. Around Friday, the guidance continues to show
support for an upper trough/closed low west of Hawaii, which could
bring in some increased moisture next weekend as it slides slowly
eastward and weakens as it becomes cut off from the main flow.
Another amplified trough may approach from the West early next
week but the guidance shows plenty of uncertainty regarding heavy
rainfall potential across the islands. The latest ECMWF is the
quickest to bring widespread rainfall to the islands around next
Monday, with other guidance suggesting it holds off until Tuesday
or beyond. Regardless, the potential is there for an increasing
wet pattern beginning early next week.  

Santorelli