Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EST Tue Jan 02 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 03 2024 - 00Z Wed Jan 10 2024

Models and ensembles continue to advertise a relatively benign
weather pattern across Hawaii through at least next weekend.
Moderate to breezy trade winds will build across Hawaii through
the week with generally light precipitation tending to favor the
typical windward slopes. Around Friday, the guidance continues to
show support for an upper trough/closed low west of Hawaii, which
could bring in some increased moisture next weekend as it slides
slowly eastward and weakens as it becomes cut off from the main
flow. An upper low looks to approach from the northwest early next
week but the guidance shows plenty of uncertainty regarding exact
placement of the low and how much precipitation moves into the
region. The ECMWF and CMC are closest to the islands, and shows
better potential for heavy rainfall than the GFS. The ensemble
means are much weaker than the deterministic guidance suggesting a
lot of variety of solutions with the individual ensemble memebers.
Regardless, there is increasing potential for widespread moderate,
possibly heavy, rainfall across at least parts of the Hawaiian
islands early next week.  

Santorelli