Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 AM EST Wed Jan 03 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 04 2024 - 00Z Thu Jan 11 2024

Models and ensembles continue to advertise a relatively benign
weather pattern across Hawaii through at least the weekend with
moderate to breezy trade winds and generally light precipitation
tending to favor the typical windward slopes. Around Friday, the
guidance continues to show support for an upper trough/closed low
west of Hawaii, which could bring in some increased moisture next
weekend as it slides slowly eastward and weakens as it becomes cut
off from the main flow. Another upper low looks to approach from
the northwest early next week, become cut off, and pivot before
lifting back to the northeast next Wednesday. This will bring a
cold front and allow above average moisture to spread across
Hawaii leading to increased potential for heavy rainfall. There
remains plenty of uncertainty regarding exact placement of the low
and how much precipitation moves into the region. The GFS is on
the western side of the guidance with less overall QPF coverage
compared to the rest of the deterministic guidance. The ensemble
means would also suggest a low placement slightly closer to the
islands, so at this point would prefer a non-GFS blend of the
guidance for this system. 

Santorelli