Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EST Thu Jan 04 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 05 2024 - 00Z Fri Jan 12 2024

Models and ensembles continue to advertise a relatively stable
weather pattern across Hawaii through Thursday with moderate to
breezy trade winds and generally light precipitation tending to
favor the typical windward slopes. This weekend, an upper
trough/closed low moving over the state could bring in some
increased moisture. Another, stronger, upper low looks to approach
from the northwest early next week, become cut off, and pivot
before lifting back to the northeast next Wednesday. This will
bring a cold front and allow above average moisture to spread
across Hawaii leading to increased potential for heavy rainfall.
There remains some uncertainty regarding exact placement of the
low and exact rainfall amounts. Regardless, this could kick off a
brief wet period for Hawaii as another amplified trough approaches
the region during the middle of next week. There is good agreement
on the overall large scale pattern across Hawaii for the next
week, but still plenty of uncertainty in the details.

Santorelli