Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1258 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 6 2024 - 00Z Sat Jan 13 2024

The next couple of days should be the quieter portion of the
forecast period with a weakening surface low across the far
northwestern Islands, and the state will generally be on the
southwestern periphery of the main subtropical surface high.  This
will maintain a steady east to southeasterly trade wind flow
through the weekend, with showers expected for upslope areas.

An active weather pattern is expected across the Hawaii domain
early to mid next week as the model guidance strongly suggests a
low pressure system develops along a quasi-stationary front
situated between 25-30 degrees north late on Sunday.  The low
develops further going into Monday night and into Tuesday as it
slowly drifts north and away from the state, and this will leave a
col in the subtropical ridge with a trailing front in the region. 
This boundary will likely enhance rainfall significantly across
the central and western Islands on Tuesday with several inches of
rain possible for the terrain favored locations.  In terms of
winds, a veering towards the south or SSE is expected with winds
over 30 mph at times, and this will also advect deeper moisture
northward across the state.

Hamrick