Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 9 2024 - 00Z Tue Jan 16 2024

A low pressure system situated between 25-30 degrees north will
continue to get better organized and deepen further going into
Tuesday morning, before slowly lifting north and away from the
Islands, with the GEFS mean indicating a faster track northward. 
This will leave a trailing frontal boundary in the vicinity of the
state, with a second area of low pressure likely developing along
that boundary going into Friday based on the latest ensemble
means.  This low loiters in place a few hundred miles northeast of
the state before gradually lifting north. 

This weather pattern supports a col in the subtropical ridge axis
and thus the trades will generally be southerly through the
beginning of the week, followed by more variable flow with the
boundary nearby.  Winds will likely turn towards the northwest by
the end of the week as the low develops northeast of the state and
the cold front passing through.  Periods of heavy rainfall are
likely on Tuesday and potentially again on Friday.

Hamrick