Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 15 2024 - 00Z Mon Jan 22 2024

A dry and relatively cool post-frontal airmass remains in place
across Hawaii for Sunday, with little to no precipitation
expected. Light background winds should allow for a land/sea
breeze pattern to set up Sunday into early Monday. On Monday
though, winds may strengthen a bit and shift to a southwesterly
direction in response to a front stalling north of the state,
bringing in more typical moist/warm air. Then by Tuesday, model
guidance has been quite agreeable for a few days now that moisture
will pool ahead of an approaching cold front, leading to bands of
rain. The front is forecast to push across the state from
northwest to southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a brief
period of gusty northwesterly winds possible behind it. Winds look
to decrease quickly though late Wednesday into Thursday as a
surface ridge builds in behind the front, promoting generally dry
conditions and a land/sea breeze pattern for late week. Another
axis of moisture ahead of yet another front may reach the
northwestern islands by late week or the weekend, though recent
model guidance has this stalling north in the Pacific. Small
fluctuations in the position of the front and moisture axis ahead
of it will lead to very different sensible weather conditions for
Kauai, so this will continue to be monitored.

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