Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 16 2024 - 00Z Tue Jan 23 2024

The pattern across Hawaii should start to change on Monday, as
southwesterly winds are forecast to pick up, advecting more
typical moist/warm air into the state in response to a front
stalling to the north. Little to no precipitation is expected on
Monday, but this is likely to change on Tuesday, as moisture pools
ahead of an approaching cold front. Global models and now also the
HREF indicate that bands of rain are likely to focus especially
across Maui and nearby. Winds are forecast to strengthen further
on Tuesday as well across most islands and the summits of the Big
Island. The front looks to push across the state from northwest to
southeast late Tuesday into Wednesday and bring in a drier airmass
with low precipitation chances, which should persist into late
week and the weekend as a surface ridge edges in. The surface high
pressure will also weaken winds and allow for a land/sea breeze
pattern to set up. Another front looks to stall north of Kauai
this weekend into early next week, but will continue to monitor if
a moisture plume ahead of the front sneaks into Kauai for
increased precipitation chances there.

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