Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2024

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 17 2024 - 00Z Wed Jan 24 2024

Southwesterly winds are bringing more typical warm/moist air into
the state in response to a front to the north. These winds are
likely to strengthen further on Tuesday, while an axis of moisture
ahead of the front will likely produce bands of rain that are
forecast to set up across Maui and nearby, including western
portions of the Big Island. A band of rain is also expected along
the front, which pushes across the state from northwest to
southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday, likely stalling and
dissipating near the Big Island by Thursday. The front will bring
in a drier airmass with low precipitation chances, which should
persist into late week and the weekend as a surface ridge edges
in. The surface high pressure will also weaken winds and allow for
a land/sea breeze pattern to set up. By the weekend, another front
(or multiple fronts) should be located north of Kauai. Winds from
the south are forecast to gradually strengthen to moderate and
then perhaps breezy levels early next week in response to the
front(s). A moisture plume ahead of this may sneak into Kauai for
increased precipitation chances there, but most models keep the
rain farther north offshore through early next week, but will
continue to monitor.

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