Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 18 2024 - 00Z Thu Jan 25 2024

In the short term, a cold front is past Kauai and is forecast to
continue southeast across the state Wednesday. Bands of rain are
occurring along and ahead of the front along with gusty winds,
which could continue through at least early Wednesday before
lessening late Wednesday. The front is forecast to stall and
dissipate near the Big Island by Thursday. The front will bring in
a drier airmass with low precipitation chances, which should
persist into late week and the weekend as a surface ridge edges
in. The surface high pressure will also weaken winds and allow for
a land/sea breeze pattern to set up late this week. By the
weekend, another front looks to stall north of the state. Winds
from the south are forecast to gradually strengthen to moderate
and then perhaps breezy levels early next week in response to the
front. This would bring in a more moist airmass, but with ridging
aloft not many showers are expected. However, a moisture plume
ahead of the front may sneak into Kauai for increased
precipitation chances there. Most guidance has the enhanced
moisture and rain staying farther north offshore through early
next week, but will continue to monitor. Models indicate the front
may finally start to push through Hawaii around midweek next week,
with another round of gusty winds and rain.

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