Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 21 2024 - 00Z Sun Jan 28 2024

Guidance overall agrees that an airmass with reduced moisture and
flow may persist through the weekend over the state as surface
ridging holds in place. This should limit precipitation chances in
a land/sea breeze pattern. Meanwhile, a front stalls to the north
of the state, with a moisture pooling trailing portion slow to
approach from the west/northwest. Southerly winds in advance of
this front will gradually strengthen to moderate and then perhaps
breezy levels into early next week. This would gradually bring in
a much more moist airmass to fuel showers into the western
islands, but with ridging aloft showers will remain limited for
the rest of the state this early in the week. However, the
trailing front seems increasingly likely to work across the island
mid-later next week to usher in a period with gusty winds and
possible downpours as heights fall with energetic upper trough
passage just to the north of the state.

Schichtel